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Like every other Filipino on the planet, I'm going to be watching the much-anticipated Manny Pacquiao v. Miguel Cotto fight tonight. I've been looking forward to this bout for months, but I haven't really gone on record with my thoughts on the contest, or a prediction, so here goes:

Tale of the tape Two things stand out to me. First, Cotto is the "natural" welterweight. He had to work extra hard to make the 145-pound contract weight for this fight. Second, Cotto goes into this fight with a two-inch reach advantage, 69 inches to Pacquiao's 67.

The big question going into tonight will be whether Cotto will be as drained by making weight as Oscar de la Hoya was when Pacquiao demolished the Golden Boy. I don't think that's going to be the case. Cotto has shown tremendous heart in the past, even in his disappointing loss to Antonio Margarito--even when weakened, Cotto went very deep.

On the reach issue, this is very interesting. Cotto's fight against Zab Judah showed that the Boricua Bomber has a formidable left jab. As a lefty fighting from the orthodox stance, Cotto (theoretically) can snap out a very powerful, very quick jab. Assuming Cotto can keep his lead foot outside of Pacquiao's, we can expect to see a lot of that jab, setting up three- and four-punch combinations to the body.

Styles Make Fights. Pacquiao tends to come in quick and overwhelm his opponents. When trouble strikes, he uses quick feet to get outside and regroup. Cotto tends to keep moving forward, bullying his opponents into trading blows, wearing them down with lots of body shots. Pac-man will try to dispose of Cotto early, like he did Ricky Hatton, taking advantage of his quick hands while Cotto is lumbering forward.

Cotto, for his part, needs to cut off the ring, push Manny around, and be sure that his feet are planted. He'll have to snap out that jab and follow it up to the body to try and slow Manny down. His is probably the strongest puncher Pacquiao has faced so far.



Wild Cards Cotto cuts easily and bleeds freely. He makes up for this physical shortcoming with prodigious heart, continuing where lesser men might have surrendered. Pac-man has been consistently improving his technique from fight to fight--so I expect him to be smart tactically here.

Cotto has a bad habit of throwing 'accidental' low blows. It makes me wonder whether or not his victory over Zab Judah would have been closer, had he not hammered Judah's bollocks in with two low blows in he early rounds. If there's a similar "accident" tonight, things may look bad for Manny.

PREDICTION Tough fight to call. I'm picking PACQUIAO TKO 11. Manny cuts Cotto early, and manages to convince the ringside doc to end it. Pac-man will be celebrating not just a win, but the end of a furious series of body blows. Sub-prediction: the first three rounds of this fight will be crucial. If Manny can impose his will on the bigger Cotto, it will be harder for Cotto to get stronger in the later rounds. Manny needs to be busy and accurate.

Watch Manny Pacquiao demolish Ricky Hatton. I had predicted a TKO in 9--I was totally stunned to watch Manny end it so emphatically in two rounds.

A longer essay on what Pacquiao means to the world later, I promise.

Nike Philippines strikes a patriotic note, setting some Pacquiao highlights to the national anthem:

Lupa ng araw ng luwalhati't pagsinta,
Buhay ay langit sa piling mo,
Aming ligaya na pag may mang-aapi,
Ang mamatay ng dahil sa 'yo.


in the English version, sung during the Commonwealth period:

Beautiful land of love, oh land of light,
In thine embrace 'tis rapture to lie;
But it is glory ever when thou art wronged
For us thy sons to suffer and die.

The San Jose Mercury News 's A+E Interactive blog passes on this interesting tidbit: Hatton goes down by KO in the 11th. Seems that the guys over at EA Sports' Fight Night ran Saturday's bout through their latest and greatest simulator, and came up with, what seems to me to be an overdramatic, yet still reasonably plausible scenario:

According to the simulation, an aggressive attempt by Hatton to limit Pacquiao’s movement early on was unsuccessful. Pacquiao’s used his speed and control of the ring to take advantage of Hatton’s aggression, picking his punches and keeping out of range. The tide turned in Hatton’s favor in Round 4 when he found some success trapping Pacquiao in the corner. With little room to work with, Pacquiao was forced to trade blows on Hatton’s terms. This relentless exchange proved to be too much for Pacquiao who went down to a powerful left hook at the end of Round 6. The later rounds saw the revival of the quick moving Pacquiao, who outpaced and out boxed Hatton yet again. Lightning fast left jabs wreaked havoc on Hatton through Rounds 7, 8 and 9 before a commanding right hand brought him to the mat in Round 10. Badly hurt and looking sluggish, Hatton was unable to beat the count after falling to another deadly right hook from Pacquiao in Round 11.

I'm picking Pacquiao by KO in 9. I'm hoping Hatton doesn't actually score that 6th-round knockdown--everything depends on Manny's ability to fight effectively from the outside and disrupt the Hitman's timing.

Here's hoping the cable wallahs have us hooked up in time for the bout.

Via PacLand, news that Pacquiao v. Hatton is a "done deal". The Hitman will face off against ang Pambansang Kamao ("The National Fist") Pacquiao on May 2 in Las Vegas.

Let me just say that I am psyched. It looks like we may have to order that digital cable service sooner than expected.

Oh, and that hook in the video?

"Tikman mo ang kamao . . . pag suntok ni Pacquiao muling titigil ang mundo!" | "Taste that fist! When Pacquiao punches, it's like the end of the world!"

I come from a reasonably frugal family. We don't enter into big-ticket purchases lightly. As many of our friends have slowly begun acquiring HDTVs, my Mom and Dad have been patiently waiting for prices to come down.

We don't watch much television, either. We ordered digital cable service for a two-month period maybe four years ago, and ended up disconnecting the digital cablebox in favor of a basic analog service. We couldn't justify the increased monthly cost of the digital service given how little TV we watch, collectively.

Well, all that changed Saturday. After watching the Pacquiao bout at a family friends' house, the HDTV discussions began in earnest. We are now resolved to get a proper HDTV system before Pacquiao boxes again.

Of course, frugality is a tough habit to kick. We're looking for a reasonably-priced system, and we're willing to use it only to receive the free HDTV signals our cable provider puts through the wire in clear QAM for a few months. When Manny is ready to box, then we'll order the digital service so we can order the Pacquiao bout. After that, we'll have to reevaluate the digital service's utility. It's not inconceivable that we disconnect digital service after the bout, only to reconnect again whenever Pacquiao is ready to box.

I figured that the money saved by deferring a cable-service upgrade can be used (at least in part) to pay down the initial capital outlay for a new TV and sound system. No sense spending money on a service that was underutilized previously if most of the benefit can be obtained for free.

Some highlights from the Pacquiao v. de la Hoya bout, via the Philippine Inquirer. Pacman in the red trunks, Oscar in the burgundy.

Here's the 7th round, in the opinion of many the best round of the fight, courtesy SoloBoxeo.com



Amusingly, SoloBoxeo, a Spanish-language boxing site, used the Philippine feed.

Here's Round 8, the final round of the combat

Manny Pacquiao just demolished Oscar de la Hoya. I'm elated--and more than a little stunned. I had been picking Pacquiao, but I expected the Golden Boy to win a few rounds--to jab better, to move, to box. But Pacquiao completely dominated de la Hoya--moving better, evading punches, turning the much-taller de la Hoya. He stunned Oscar with a few left-hand lead straights to the head.

"He's too fast, he's too fast," Oscar's corner was telling him, after Round 8. Everybody was asking him if he wanted to continue. The Golden Boy just sat there. No more.

On the one hand, I'm elated. Manny Pacquiao went up two weight classes for this bout and decisively demolished de la Hoya. It'll be interesting to see whether Pacquiao stays at welterweight--is a fight with Ricky Hatton in the cards?

On the other, it's never nice to see a figher you respect a lot get trashed. Oscar got utterly thrashed. I was reminded of Hector "Macho" Camacho's last bout, against Kostya Tzuu--how I nearly cried when I saw Macho collapse in the face of Tzuu's unrelenting assault. I had watched Macho on TV when I was little, watched him at his prime, stylishly demolishing opponents. And yet, there he was, broken and humbled by Kostya Tzuu.

Oscar's defeat wasn't nearly that bad--but it was close. "There were times in the fight that Oscar actually looked afraid of Manny," said my father, who watched the bout with me. "Manny would feint, and Oscar would cringe in fear. He [Oscar] isn't the champion he was."

Also, I should say that I was very impressed with 21 year old ABO Junior Welterweight Champ Victor Ortiz, who demolished Jeffrey Resto in the last undercard bout. My Dad and I debated the merits of a possible Pacquiao/Ortiz matchup on the way home.

I've just been invited to go watch the Pacquiao bout on TV. YEHEY

WBC Super Featherweight champ Manny Pacquiao [Flame trunks in the clip above] is a national hero back in the Philippines. In a country that loves its boxers, he’s the first great Filipino champion of my generation. Here he is knocking out Erik Morales in the 3rd round of their third bout.

Watching Pacquiao box makes me want to cheer every time. Not only does it make me proud to be Filipino, but it brings me back to when I was a little kid watching boxing on TV with my Dad. There were some really great boxers back in those days--Sugar Ray Leonard, “Marvellous” Marvin Hagler, Tommy “the Hitman” Hearns, Hector “Macho” Camacho....the current generation of fighters just hasn’t measured up.