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Like every other Filipino on the planet, I'm going to be watching the much-anticipated Manny Pacquiao v. Miguel Cotto fight tonight. I've been looking forward to this bout for months, but I haven't really gone on record with my thoughts on the contest, or a prediction, so here goes:

Tale of the tape Two things stand out to me. First, Cotto is the "natural" welterweight. He had to work extra hard to make the 145-pound contract weight for this fight. Second, Cotto goes into this fight with a two-inch reach advantage, 69 inches to Pacquiao's 67.

The big question going into tonight will be whether Cotto will be as drained by making weight as Oscar de la Hoya was when Pacquiao demolished the Golden Boy. I don't think that's going to be the case. Cotto has shown tremendous heart in the past, even in his disappointing loss to Antonio Margarito--even when weakened, Cotto went very deep.

On the reach issue, this is very interesting. Cotto's fight against Zab Judah showed that the Boricua Bomber has a formidable left jab. As a lefty fighting from the orthodox stance, Cotto (theoretically) can snap out a very powerful, very quick jab. Assuming Cotto can keep his lead foot outside of Pacquiao's, we can expect to see a lot of that jab, setting up three- and four-punch combinations to the body.

Styles Make Fights. Pacquiao tends to come in quick and overwhelm his opponents. When trouble strikes, he uses quick feet to get outside and regroup. Cotto tends to keep moving forward, bullying his opponents into trading blows, wearing them down with lots of body shots. Pac-man will try to dispose of Cotto early, like he did Ricky Hatton, taking advantage of his quick hands while Cotto is lumbering forward.

Cotto, for his part, needs to cut off the ring, push Manny around, and be sure that his feet are planted. He'll have to snap out that jab and follow it up to the body to try and slow Manny down. His is probably the strongest puncher Pacquiao has faced so far.



Wild Cards Cotto cuts easily and bleeds freely. He makes up for this physical shortcoming with prodigious heart, continuing where lesser men might have surrendered. Pac-man has been consistently improving his technique from fight to fight--so I expect him to be smart tactically here.

Cotto has a bad habit of throwing 'accidental' low blows. It makes me wonder whether or not his victory over Zab Judah would have been closer, had he not hammered Judah's bollocks in with two low blows in he early rounds. If there's a similar "accident" tonight, things may look bad for Manny.

PREDICTION Tough fight to call. I'm picking PACQUIAO TKO 11. Manny cuts Cotto early, and manages to convince the ringside doc to end it. Pac-man will be celebrating not just a win, but the end of a furious series of body blows. Sub-prediction: the first three rounds of this fight will be crucial. If Manny can impose his will on the bigger Cotto, it will be harder for Cotto to get stronger in the later rounds. Manny needs to be busy and accurate.

Finally got to look at video of yesterday's stunning upset at the Confederations Cup:



[edit: looks like they pulled the video with the great commentary. I'm leaving my translation up, because it, more than anything else I've read lately, sums up how stunning and how awesome yesterday's performance was, especially to the rest of the sporting universe.]

[edit 2: I've found another highlight reel. The video feed is the same for both goals, so just imagine the commentary is in Mexican spanish and not in Croatian:]



This is from a Mexican broadcaster. Gems from the commentators, here. The first goal:

"It looks like Dempsey and Donovan have changed places--now Dempsey through the left side--Davis gives it back--They filter it forward for Altidore--The United States is playing well GOOOOOOOOOL! GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOl! THE UNEXPECTED, THE INCREDIBLE IS HAPPENING IN THIS MATCH! IT LOOKED LIKE SPAIN WAS DOING BETTER, BUT THE AMERICAN UNION [note: Spanish-language commentators love riffing on team names] SCORED JUST LIKE THAT! WE WERE JUST SAYING "THEY'RE PLAYING WELL. . . THE SCORE IS ONE-NIL!"

(during the replay)

"The North American team was going to be trouble for Spain, because they're cold, they know how to attack, not like South Africa, which looked absolutely innocent even in the moment of the attack"


The second goal:

". . . and, including since the arrival of Cazorla, Spain has not had a single good offensive play. They haven't gotten used to the change. And Sp--Spain with problems. LOOK OUT. ATTENTION--THIS COULD BE IT--DONOVAAAAAAAAAN'S GOT IT--[Donovan crosses to Dempsey] NO GOOD, HE STRUCK IT TOO SOFTLY--[Dempsey finishes] THE BALL IS IN THE GOAL! DEMPSEY! DEMPSEY SHOWED NO MERCY! DEMPSEY SHOWED NO MERCY! UNITED STATES! AND THIS LOOKS LIKE A HOLLYWOOD HORROR MOVIE--ONCE AGAIN, A DEFENSIVE ERROR, THE BALL STAYS THERE, AND DEMPSEY PUTS IT IN. THIS IS INCREDIBLE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!"

Watch Manny Pacquiao demolish Ricky Hatton. I had predicted a TKO in 9--I was totally stunned to watch Manny end it so emphatically in two rounds.

A longer essay on what Pacquiao means to the world later, I promise.

Nike Philippines strikes a patriotic note, setting some Pacquiao highlights to the national anthem:

Lupa ng araw ng luwalhati't pagsinta,
Buhay ay langit sa piling mo,
Aming ligaya na pag may mang-aapi,
Ang mamatay ng dahil sa 'yo.


in the English version, sung during the Commonwealth period:

Beautiful land of love, oh land of light,
In thine embrace 'tis rapture to lie;
But it is glory ever when thou art wronged
For us thy sons to suffer and die.

The San Jose Mercury News 's A+E Interactive blog passes on this interesting tidbit: Hatton goes down by KO in the 11th. Seems that the guys over at EA Sports' Fight Night ran Saturday's bout through their latest and greatest simulator, and came up with, what seems to me to be an overdramatic, yet still reasonably plausible scenario:

According to the simulation, an aggressive attempt by Hatton to limit Pacquiao’s movement early on was unsuccessful. Pacquiao’s used his speed and control of the ring to take advantage of Hatton’s aggression, picking his punches and keeping out of range. The tide turned in Hatton’s favor in Round 4 when he found some success trapping Pacquiao in the corner. With little room to work with, Pacquiao was forced to trade blows on Hatton’s terms. This relentless exchange proved to be too much for Pacquiao who went down to a powerful left hook at the end of Round 6. The later rounds saw the revival of the quick moving Pacquiao, who outpaced and out boxed Hatton yet again. Lightning fast left jabs wreaked havoc on Hatton through Rounds 7, 8 and 9 before a commanding right hand brought him to the mat in Round 10. Badly hurt and looking sluggish, Hatton was unable to beat the count after falling to another deadly right hook from Pacquiao in Round 11.

I'm picking Pacquiao by KO in 9. I'm hoping Hatton doesn't actually score that 6th-round knockdown--everything depends on Manny's ability to fight effectively from the outside and disrupt the Hitman's timing.

Here's hoping the cable wallahs have us hooked up in time for the bout.

Via PacLand, news that Pacquiao v. Hatton is a "done deal". The Hitman will face off against ang Pambansang Kamao ("The National Fist") Pacquiao on May 2 in Las Vegas.

Let me just say that I am psyched. It looks like we may have to order that digital cable service sooner than expected.

Oh, and that hook in the video?

"Tikman mo ang kamao . . . pag suntok ni Pacquiao muling titigil ang mundo!" | "Taste that fist! When Pacquiao punches, it's like the end of the world!"

I come from a reasonably frugal family. We don't enter into big-ticket purchases lightly. As many of our friends have slowly begun acquiring HDTVs, my Mom and Dad have been patiently waiting for prices to come down.

We don't watch much television, either. We ordered digital cable service for a two-month period maybe four years ago, and ended up disconnecting the digital cablebox in favor of a basic analog service. We couldn't justify the increased monthly cost of the digital service given how little TV we watch, collectively.

Well, all that changed Saturday. After watching the Pacquiao bout at a family friends' house, the HDTV discussions began in earnest. We are now resolved to get a proper HDTV system before Pacquiao boxes again.

Of course, frugality is a tough habit to kick. We're looking for a reasonably-priced system, and we're willing to use it only to receive the free HDTV signals our cable provider puts through the wire in clear QAM for a few months. When Manny is ready to box, then we'll order the digital service so we can order the Pacquiao bout. After that, we'll have to reevaluate the digital service's utility. It's not inconceivable that we disconnect digital service after the bout, only to reconnect again whenever Pacquiao is ready to box.

I figured that the money saved by deferring a cable-service upgrade can be used (at least in part) to pay down the initial capital outlay for a new TV and sound system. No sense spending money on a service that was underutilized previously if most of the benefit can be obtained for free.

Some highlights from the Pacquiao v. de la Hoya bout, via the Philippine Inquirer. Pacman in the red trunks, Oscar in the burgundy.

Here's the 7th round, in the opinion of many the best round of the fight, courtesy SoloBoxeo.com



Amusingly, SoloBoxeo, a Spanish-language boxing site, used the Philippine feed.

Here's Round 8, the final round of the combat

Manny Pacquiao just demolished Oscar de la Hoya. I'm elated--and more than a little stunned. I had been picking Pacquiao, but I expected the Golden Boy to win a few rounds--to jab better, to move, to box. But Pacquiao completely dominated de la Hoya--moving better, evading punches, turning the much-taller de la Hoya. He stunned Oscar with a few left-hand lead straights to the head.

"He's too fast, he's too fast," Oscar's corner was telling him, after Round 8. Everybody was asking him if he wanted to continue. The Golden Boy just sat there. No more.

On the one hand, I'm elated. Manny Pacquiao went up two weight classes for this bout and decisively demolished de la Hoya. It'll be interesting to see whether Pacquiao stays at welterweight--is a fight with Ricky Hatton in the cards?

On the other, it's never nice to see a figher you respect a lot get trashed. Oscar got utterly thrashed. I was reminded of Hector "Macho" Camacho's last bout, against Kostya Tzuu--how I nearly cried when I saw Macho collapse in the face of Tzuu's unrelenting assault. I had watched Macho on TV when I was little, watched him at his prime, stylishly demolishing opponents. And yet, there he was, broken and humbled by Kostya Tzuu.

Oscar's defeat wasn't nearly that bad--but it was close. "There were times in the fight that Oscar actually looked afraid of Manny," said my father, who watched the bout with me. "Manny would feint, and Oscar would cringe in fear. He [Oscar] isn't the champion he was."

Also, I should say that I was very impressed with 21 year old ABO Junior Welterweight Champ Victor Ortiz, who demolished Jeffrey Resto in the last undercard bout. My Dad and I debated the merits of a possible Pacquiao/Ortiz matchup on the way home.

I've just been invited to go watch the Pacquiao bout on TV. YEHEY

Ahead of tonight's Germany/Turkey Euro semifinal, let me just say that I echo the sentiments of many: Let Football be the winner.

I've just come back from a kickaround with a bunch of people from the summer program and our Polish counterparts. Great fun.

I know I'm a bit late, but I noticed something that should have been obvious.

President Bush's stuff has declined since 2001. No, I don't mean his political acumen or his popularity, although that certainly is the case. No, I mean his pitching form. Here he is throwing out the first pitch at the Nats' home opener:


The President at the Nats' home opener this season. I'm running this version because the Associated Press version squelched out the boos of the crowd.

Ouch. Nowhere near the strike zone--not even in the American League.

Now it has become a part of post-9/11 legend that when the President came to Yankee Stadium, he threw a strike. I seemed to remember that. Everybody repeated that. Many people--including the President himself-- took great pride in his pitching that evening. So I pulled the video:


The President, in happier times.

Sure enough, a solid strike, right down the middle.

Maybe President Bush rose to that occasion--many pitchers get better in "big game" situations, after all. So I decided to look at what might have been a more typical G.W. Bush outing, the Nats' home opener at RFK in 2005.

Note how many more cheers than boos. But he does OK-- a chest-high ball, but you know, they do call those high strikes these days.

I wonder if the Opening Day boos rattled the President.

Johan Cruyff on his philosophy of football. This is kind of tough to understand; the interviewer is speaking Catalan and Cruyff answers in Castilian. But, since it's Cruyff, he has a very heavy Dutch accent. At any rate, for those of you who understand neither Catalan, nor Castilian, nor Dutch, a rough translation of the interview:


INTERVIEWER: . . . so we have made a small handbook to understand his philosophy of Football--we'll call it, "Football According to Cruyff." It has five chapters. . . I'll read off the chapter titles, and you'll explain them. Let's begin. [reads] "Chapter One: If you have the ball, the other guy doesn't."

[laughter from audience]

Begging your pardon--isn't that obvious?

CRUYFF: Yes, yes, and the game is still played with only one ball.

[more laughter, applause]


INTERVIEWER: [can't translate] yeah, so naturally it's just one ball . . .

CRUYFF: Well yeah. If I have it, then they don't, and so you don't have a problem--or fewer problems. But what I mean to say by it, basically, is two things: If you want to go on the attack, you have to dominate the game. And you can only dominate the game if you have the ball.

Two: if you want to go on the attack, you need people with a fine technique, for instance, like a [player: lost in the accent], to give you an example, and these are more valuable on a small field than a big one. I mean to say that a small field is when you play on the attack and make it so the other guy doesn't go 40 or 50 metres, so that when you get the ball back you have to run back again--you keep it there, inside. The yield is thus much greater.

What's more, because you're always touching the ball, there's always something to watch. Otherwise, all you see is guys running--you don't see anyone touching the ball.

INTERVIEWER: OK, so that's the first one: "If you have the ball, the other guy doesn't." Second chapter: "The rhythm of the ball is the important thing."

CRUYFF: Yes; you see that in football there are many collisions, especially those teams that go in forcefully, so simply, the rhythm of the ball is a bit more intense, and by and large they are the ones who control it.

INTERVIEWER: Third chapter: "You must emphasize fundamentals.

CRUYFF: Yes, because you see all the time that people fail to make simple passes and simple things. And if the details, in that sense, work well--because it's a question of concentration, a question of position--it results in a game that is very beautiful to watch and very difficult--very difficult--for them to defend you. But you lose rhythm when there are fouls--you lose rhythm when you lose the ball, and all that.

INTERVIEWER: Fourth chapter: "You must always win one-on-one"

CRUYFF: Yes. . . and this both on offense and defense. On offense, if everyone has taken many risks to get to a one-on-one matchup, you need people who can win those matchups--people like [name lost to accent], like [name lost to accent], like Romario and all of them---and when you can get them in one-on-one matchups, the chance of scoring a goal and winning a match is much better.

INTERVIEWER: And the Fifth Chapter of this handbook of the philosophy of Football according to Johan Cruyff: "I would rather win 5-4 than 1-0." But come on, they just scored four goals on you . . .

CRUYFF: Yeah, but it's all the same--as long as you score one more goal [than the other guy], it's no big deal.

INTERVIEWER: . . . and losing? Would you rather lose 6-3 or 3-0?

CRUYFF: Me? 6-3. I think that when you've lost, you've lost-- at least the fans have had something to see.

INTERVIEWER: So as long as you've put on a good show, that's OK?

CRUYFF: No, no--I would rather win, without a doubt . . . but if your'e going to lose anyway, better that the people have enjoyed themselves.



Something to think about. Interesting, that last bit about losing: "If you're going to lose anyway, better that the crowd enjoy it . . . "

You're really not endearing yourselves to me by running those ridiculously intrusive popover flash ad banners on the Washington Post website. Thank God for Flashblock.

But seriously, Mr. Leonsis, can you possibly find a more disruptive & distracting way to market the team? I was kind of a hockey fan before. Now you're just pissing me off. It's not like I have anything emotionally tying me to the game anyway.

"The polls show I'm the only Democrat who right out beats every Republican they can throw up there. I beat Mitt, I beat Rudy, I beat John, I beat Fred, I beat Mike. I beat John. Who else? I'll beat 'em all, beat 'em all! I'll beat Keyes. Who else they got?"
---Barack Obama, addressing a campaign rally in Iowa.

Shortly thereafter, Obama promised to knock Hillary Clinton out in the seventh round in their upcoming title bout.

Honestly, with rhetoric like this, Obama is reminding me more and more of another tall, handsome, African-American phenomenon. Yes, ladies and gents, I'm talking about the Greatest of All Time (and I don't mean L.L. Cool J), the Champion to End All Champions, Muhammad Ali!



But I worry for Obama. According to the WaPo's Dana Millbank, the Obama campaign depends on the youthful enthusiasm of his volunteers. This could be a problem.

The problem with us young people is that we tend to be extremely enthusiastic for whatever it is we do on the Internet, but the jury is still out as to whether or not that enthusiasm will translate to results on the ground. "Howlin'" Howard Dean was supposed to have been swept from Vermont into the White House with the DailyKossacks leading the charge. Well, that didn't happen--but that didn't stop the Kossacks from patting themselves on the back (endlessly). Nor did the hyper-enthusiastic--perhaps rabid?-- netroots types succeed in electing someone other than sometime-standard-bearer-now-defector Joe Lieberman to the Senate in Connecticut.

The curious thing about the Internet is that it allows us to aggregate in "virtual" communities. Communication costs next to nothing, so we can remain in constant contact with people who share our interests, no matter how broad or narrow. This is great for hobbies--but bad for American electoral politics. The Presidential election depends on the kind of old-fashioned aggregation that we're about to see in Iowa tonight: actual supporters in an actual jurisdiction casting actual ballots for actual candidates.

Our Galaxy turns (or so I am told)
On an axis that's distant and hidden and old--
Like a monarch or prince it attracts to its train
Lesser stars, who are bound in their paths to remain.

So it was for the forty-five thousand that came
In their cars, on the train, to a Thursday night game;
Attracted, compelled by a force with a name:
David Beckham was here! (He, of footballing fame
As no doubt many knew--and the few who did not?
Well it wasn't the sun that made those ladies hot)

By the thousands they came, by the truckload, by ton--
But the first half saw Beckham do nothing but run
On the touchline a bit--no, he never went on,
The BeckhamCam man must have stifled a yawn!

David Beckham the Circus had come, that was so,
But DC United provided the show:
Luciano Emilio, whose cannon-like score
Drew from the old faithful a thunderous roar!

And the faithful were there, in their colors arrayed:
The Twelfth Man, who is DC United's best aid:
Here were Norte and Eagles and Barras in force
Waving flags, singing, cheering until they were hoarse.

The rain fell in torrents, the heavens did rumble,
But DC United fans never did stumble:
And Galaxy, faltering, now a man down
Called at last on their Beckham of fame and renown.

How the ladies did scream--how the flashbulbs went off,
When Beckham, preparing, did take his shirt off!
And when Beckham arrived on the field, now to play,
The flashbulbs did turn Thursday night into day!
And if Beckham should tap a ball even a bit,
What a cheer the capacity crowd did emit!

'Twas too little, too late for the Galaxy, though--
Luciano Emilio's was too great of a blow.
When the whistle was blown, and the ball ceased to roll
It wasn't the hype that had won, but the soul--
Though Beckham may draw a capacity crowd
For United it was they were cheering out loud:
What Beckham can show us by his coming near
Is just how many fans there are already here

"Beanball Sax" on Google Video
Created from http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Aw8iF9Zxaz0

A little chin music in the Se Riguu...to the tune of "Yakety Sax." Shamelessly ganked from somewhere else on the Interblag.

The Red and the Black were still winless in three--
(Not a singular point, not a win, not a draw)
When the doughty New Englanders came to DC,
To be witnessed by Eagles, and Barras, and me.

Now that dreaded statistic did stick in the craw
Of DC United's vociferous fans--
Whom the rest of the league should regard with great awe--
All other supporters are nothing but straw.

So the Red and the Black, for their suffering fans,
For the love of the game and the sake of their name
Did valiantly try to please those in the stands
Who cheered on their efforts with uprais`ed hands.

But New England struck first! O the pain! O the shame!
Tyler Twellman, the imp, flicked a shot-- it was saved!
But his comrade converted, one Dornan by name.
Would D.C. United again live in shame?

Five minutes would pass ere the debt was repaid
By Jaime Moreno, by breaking away
From New England's defense (O, how skillfully played!)
The penalty area did he then invade.

But Riley then came, who with nothing to say,
Fouled Moreno instead to send him to the spot--
So doughty New England's defensive array
Would have nothing at all now to do but to pray--

And now does Moreno line up for the shot;
And now does the goalie attempt to prepare;
And now does his foot strike the ball--now it's caught
By the back of the net! Now the score is a knot!

New England's Grenadian, with nary a care
Nor with visible mercy, cut Ben Olsen down--
With Joseph sent off, could United now dare
To hope for a win in their RFK lair?

To hope proved too much-- though they were a man down,
New England relied on the crossbar and posts:
DC took its shots, the posts did rebound
While the Red and the Black the goal did surround.

New England, in sum, took a point from their hosts.
United, still winless, did salvage a draw.
And the refs? Those incompetents, less worthy than goats,
Will live to be cursed in many a toast.